marc-tarpenning-on-innovation.md (3970B)
1 +++ 2 title = "Marc Tarpenning on Innovation" 3 date = 2024-12-01 4 [extra] 5 type = "post" 6 +++ 7 8 I was very fortunate to have the opportunity to hear Marc Tarpenning, 9 cofounder of Tesla, speak at the beginning of this quarter. It was the 10 most exciting and impactful talk I've attended at Stanford thus far. 11 This is really saying something. 12 13 <!-- more --> 14 15 In his talk, Tarpenning elucidated a theory of innovation and disruption 16 that feels to me to have been "lost to time." It is a measured, 17 idea-first strategy that is totally foreign to the current generation of 18 startups and to a world in which "founder" is itself a career. 19 20 [Sara Singer] condensed his theory into a wonderful diagram that I have 21 further developed into the following list (broad principles are bolded, 22 with the specific examples from Tarpenning's time at Tesla in the normal 23 weight): 24 25 1. **Identify a real problem. Prove it exists with real-world data. 26 Narrow down your search area by taking the age-old wisdom seriously: 27 "if something can't go on forever, it won't." Create the solution 28 that will replace it.** At Tesla, Marc and his cofounder Martin 29 Eberhard wanted to help solve the issue of climate change. The DoE 30 projected in 2008 that over 70% of U.S. oil demand came from 31 the transportation sector, and others have calculated that 32 decarbonizing road transportation "could feasibly reduce global 33 emissions by 11.9%" ([The Carbon Almanac], pp. 67). Without any 34 action, climate change would end the world. The scenario they 35 identified thus fits the above model—a problem that exists and a 36 solution that must arrive eventually. So they set out to build a car 37 without emissions. 38 2. **Evaluate your solutions. Prove that it will work, mathematically, 39 before you start building. Your product cannot be better along just a 40 single-axis if you want to change people's behavior; make a [Pareto 41 improvement]. Do the hardest thing first to learn if your solution is 42 possible.** Marc and Martin evaluated two things: the technology and 43 the market. First, they exhaustively investigated possible power 44 sources before deciding that batteries had reached the right 45 power density and mass-producibility to be—provably—the most 46 effective alternative to gasoline. Even powered by coal generators, 47 an electric car is less polluting per mile than an ICE vehicle due to 48 the efficiency of the electric motor (significantly less energy 49 wasted as heat, thus more energy toward movement). On the market 50 front, they found that upper-class Americans were seeking out 51 environmentally-friendly vehicles as a status symbol—with the Prius 52 eating into Lexus sales, and GM having to physically claw back their 53 [EV1] from leasers. Without scale, their first car would be 54 expensive, but it being the only vehicle to truly satisfy this niche 55 meant if the tech worked they would find buyers. Finally, their 56 solution wasn't just technically better for customers with its 57 radical efficiency: it was fun, sexy. The rise of electric cars has 58 made them feel normal, but Tarpenning described the "electric smile," 59 a meme they threw around at Tesla in the early days to describe the 60 reaction that drivers had from the very first moment they pressed the 61 pedal and felt the instant torque. 62 3. **Change the world. The shape of progress is not inevitable, we make 63 it. [Success is assured only in retrospect.][jobs]** Tarpenning 64 advocated for a goal of "sustainable abundance," forged from a fusion 65 of technological advancement, government buy-in, and behavioral 66 change. 67 68 A lot of software businesses have none of these qualities. 69 70 [Sara Singer]: https://profiles.stanford.edu/sara-singer 71 [Pareto improvement]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pareto_efficiency 72 [The Carbon Almanac]: https://thecarbonalmanac.org 73 [EV1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/General_Motors_EV1 74 [jobs]: https://youtu.be/UF8uR6Z6KLc?feature=shared&t=269